GCSE results summary – pdf file download
Summary pasted below:
GCSE Results Webinar Summary
Introductions
Speakers introduced:
- Helen Myers — ALL trustee, chair of ALL London.
- David Blow — ALL Fellow, executive head of SESSET, national data specialist.
- Adam Lamb — ALL Council member, Director of MFL at United Learning.
- Catherine — ALL Council member, Head of Languages (technical difficulties prevented full participation).
Overview of Webinar Structure [Slides 7–8]
David outlines the plan:
- What happened in June and August (and what had ALL said would happen)
- Who decides what re new specifications (DfE, Ofqual, exam boards)
- Why was there a new specification + timeline (and not severe grading)
- Preparation for the new exams – Sample Assessment Materials, training etc
- Why was there expectation that raw marks would be higher?
- Impact on grade boundaries and grade outcomes
- How are grades calculated, comparable outcomes, severe grading
- Advice on “estimating grades” (summer Y10, webinar Dec 25)
- Provisional entry and tiering information (publ Jun 26)
- “Exam experience”
- Information available after the exam (papers, mark schemes, examiners’ reports, statistics from question level upwards)
- Looking at the papers in more detail, comparison with the specification and analysing the examiners’ reports and the statistics
- Results and marks in more detail (AQA, Pearson)
Grade outcomes [Slides 9–12]
He shows predictions from ALL Webinar December 2025 and demonstrates they were accurate due to comparable outcomes i.e. %4+ and %7+ June 2026 very similar to June 2025.
Key Data Concepts [Slide 13]
David explains five essential data concepts:
- Mona Lisa effect — averages hide detail.
- Apples vs pears — avoid invalid comparisons.
- Threshold vs average — different metrics.
- Relativity — what moved: school or national picture.
- Goodhart’s Law — when a measure becomes a target, it stops being a good measure.
National Trends 2019–2026 [Slides 14–16]
Graphs show:
- French and German uplift in 2024–25 (completing the Ofqual adjustment).
- Spanish uplift in 2026 (small, around 1%).
- Severe grading remains visible.
- Variation from year to year equal to %4+ at centre level is normal: 5–10% swings yearly. Variation at national level has NOT increased from ’25 to ’26 for French.
Comparing French, German & Spanish Using Ofqual Analytics [Slides 17–21]
Adam demonstrates how Ofqual Analytics reveals:
- % Grade 3 increased significantly in French, German and Spanish in 2026 and % grades 2 and 1 reduced to balance.
- Higher-tier entries increased sharply in all.
- Differences between languages:
- French decrease at grade 5
- German shows a drop at grade 4.
- Spanish shows uplift at grade 3 and grade 6.
Ability Profiles & Relativity [Slide 22]
David shows concurrent attainment (English & maths) helps compare cohorts.
- German candidates have the highest concurrent attainment profile.
- French slightly higher than Spanish.
- Spanish shows a noticeable uplift in 2026 (possibly rebalancing).
Reminder: roles of DfE, Ofqual, exam boards [Slides 24–25]
Grade outcomes effectively set by Ofqual, not by exam boards.
Why the New Specification Exists [Slides 26–32]
Timeline:
- 2016: Pedagogy review (Ian Bauckham).
- 2019: DfE group reviews subject content.
- 2021: DfE publishes new subject content proposals.
- 2022: Final guidance issued by DfE and Ofqual.
- Sep 2024: First teaching of new GCSE.
- May/June 2026: First exams.
Key features:
- Defined vocabulary lists (85% high-frequency words).
- Reduced grammar content.
- Phonics lists.
- Severe grading was NOT a reason for the new spec.
Why Raw Marks Were Expected to Be Higher [Slides 33–34]
Reasons include:
- Mastery approach.
- Clearer tasks.
- English rubrics.
- Defined vocabulary.
- Better exam experience.
But higher raw marks do NOT mean higher grades due to comparable outcomes.
Grade Boundaries Explained [Slides 35–46]
David explains:
- Grade boundaries cannot be set in advance.
- Grade 1, 4, 7 are judgmental boundaries linked to comparable outcomes.
- Grades 2, 3, 5, 6 are arithmetic boundaries.
- Raw marks shifted right in 2026, so boundaries moved accordingly.
- Absolute boundary values have no intrinsic meaning.
Severe Grading [Slides 47–48]
David reminds us about the severe grading in GCSE ML, a historic anomaly going back to O-level.
Advice on Predicting Grades [Slides 49–51]
Provisional Entry & Tiering [Slides 52–53]
- Drop of 5% in GCSE French entries.
- Increase in Higher Tier entries.
Exam Experience [Slide 54]
Better this year – positive comments from candidates.
Sources of Data [Slides 55–60]
AQA data insights, Pearson Results Plus. Teachers encouraged to use these rich sources.
Speaking Higher Component (AQA) [Slides 61–79]
- Read-aloud task.
- Mean score nationally 2.5/5.
- Silent -ENT endings noted as major errors.
- Speaking slightly lower relative to other skills.
Writing Higher Component (Pearson) [Slides 80–102]
- Writing had the lowest notional boundary.
- Grammar accuracy is key.
- Translation accuracy heavily weighted.
- Pearson examiner reports contain detailed exemplification.
Foundation writing headlines:
- Completion rates improved.
- Raw marks higher across skills.
- Grammar accuracy decisive.
- Read-aloud needs targeted phonics teaching.
More webinars planned. ALL London January event confirmed.
Results & Marks in More Detail [Slides 104–105]
AQA and Edexcel notional component boundaries for French, German and Spanish (higher tier). Foundation to follow.