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Statistics

Figures are for England and have been taken from JCQ statistics. There is an accompanying Excel spreadsheet with all the figures and graphs.

Download the following text here.

Summary of situation regarding “severe grading” in GCSE ML
 - Sept 11

These documents and many others referred to below relating to “severe grading” are at the ALL London website: www.all-london.org.uk/severe_grading.htm  ASCL, ALL (Association for Language Learning) and ISMLA (Independent Schools Modern Language Association) have worked closely together on these matters which affect state and independent sectors.

GCSE numbers

·    There has been a steady decline in the numbers taking GCSE Modern Languages over the last ten years, with sharp declines for the exams taken in June 2005 onwards, so that now the numbers have fallen by over half since 2002, with a significant drop from 2010 to 2011

·    The pattern is very similar for French and German, just different starting points
 (e.g French: 2002 = 315,071, 2010 = 163,283  (i.e. 52% of ‘02);
          2011 = 141,472  (i.e. 45% of ’02 and decline of 13% from ‘10);
      German: 2002 = 122,053,   2010 =   67,084  (i.e. 55% of ‘02);
          2011 = 58,382  (i.e. 48% of ’02 and decline of 13% from ‘10);

·    The decline has been particularly marked in lower-attaining pupils at GCSE
 (e.g. in 2002 165,412 gained A*-C and 149,659 gained D-U,
   but in 2011 102,001 gained A*-C (i.e. 62% of ’02) and 39,471 gained D-U (i.e. 26% of ’02)) [nos. in French – similar Gn]

·    The change in the intake profile for GCSE has led to an increased percentage of entries getting higher grades, but there is an unresolved question as to whether the increase has been great enough to match the attainment of the students.

·    The numbers taking Spanish and some other languages (with many native speakers) had increased slightly in the same period, but dropped in 2010, and also are far outweighed by the decline in French and German (e.g. Spanish: 2002 = 54,050,
2010 = 62,580, 2011 = 60,773)

·    An unexpected new factor this year is the drop in A* grades in French, German and Spanish in both percentages and actual numbers.

“Severe grading” at GCSE

The outline proposal from ASCL, ALL and ISMLA is that grading in GCSE ML should be brought broadly into line with that in Mathematics (and thus also with other subjects such as Science, History and Geography). 

 Timeline:

·    Recommendation in Dearing Review (Mar ’07) to investigate and establish facts at GCSE

·    Dr Robert Coe ( CEM Durham University ) (Mar ’07) presents at ASCL Annual Conference “Are some GCSEs harder than others?) – see diagram on right which illustrates 6 different methodologies (the higher the line the more severely graded the subject is)

·    Guardian article (12 Mar 2007) David Willetts, Conservative education spokesman, said:  "If there is evidence modern languages is tougher than other GCSEs, then that is something that has to be corrected. They should be the same level of challenge as traditional academic GCSEs."

·    Alan Johnson asks (Jun ’07) the QCA to conduct a review and is awaiting their advice on whether or not to change grade boundaries.

·    QCA report 'Grade standards in GCSE modern foreign languages' published Feb ’08 accepts the reality of “severe grading” – see paragraphs 11-15

para. 12    To test its practical application we asked AQA, Edexcel and OCR to calculate what changes there would be to their 2007 GCSE French results if the grades were based only on the relationship between candidates’ key stage 3 test scores and their results in GCSE mathematics. The analyses indicated that the changes would be marked at the higher grades. About half the candidates presently awarded a grade B would gain a grade A as the threshold mark or performance standard for a grade A would have to move down by about half a grade width. There would be a similar effect at grade C.

·    Ofqual hold their first Inter-subject comparability seminar (Oct  ’08) with representatives from a range of organisations.  Presentations from ML, STEM and English subject representatives.  Issue of “severe grading” formally recognised, but different views about “next steps”.

Value-added information (DfE and Ofsted)

Information is now available from the DfE Performance Tables website and the Ofsted/DfE RAISEonline website which shows the performance of all pupils in different subjects in terms of their prior attainment at KS2. The English Baccalaureate Languages measure combines many languages.  The individual line on the right for French is around half a grade lower (similarly for German and Spanish)

 Comment and external links.

Download the following here.

FIRST RELEASE ON THURSDAY 25^TH AUGUST 2011

GCSE results day - updates, news and comment

The main headlines, updates, news and comment on 2011 GCSE results:

- GCSE results: Gender gap widens in record-breaking year: www.bbc.co.uk

"Girls have increased their lead over boys in top-grade in GCSEs, in another record-breaking year of results. The performance gap between boys and girls has now reached its the widest ever - 6.7 percentage points - at the top grades of A* and A.

More exam entries overall were given the A and A* grades, and just under 70% were awarded between an A* and a C. The GCSE results show an increase, for the 23rd year running, in the proportion of entries awarded between an A* and a C grade.

Results day also reveals the popularity of different GCSE subjects, and this year saw an increase in the numbers taking individual sciences but a continued fall in numbers taking history, geography and modern foreign languages. ... the number of entries in both French and German dropped by 13.2%, while Spanish also saw a small decline and geography entries dropped by 7.1%."

- Alarm over decline in pupils studying languages: www.independent.co.uk

"A further dramatic slump in the number of pupils taking modern-languages GCSEs is alarming exam boards and teachers' leaders. Figures show that the take-up of French and German has fallen by 13.2 per cent in the past year to 154,221 and 60,887 respectively. It means fewer than one in four 16-year-olds now take French and one in 10 take German.

Even Spanish, which has been the only bright spot on the horizon with rising numbers in the past few years, has fallen by 2.5 per cent to 66,021. "Today's students are at risk of failing to to meet the needs of our universities, economy and society," said Wendy Piatt, director general of the Russell Group, which represents 20 of the country's top research universities."

- Interview with Nick Gibb: www.bbc.co.uk

- Nick Gibb comments on A-Level results: www.wired-gov.net

- GCSE results 2011: One in four entries gets A or A*: www.guardian.co.uk

- GCSE results - live blog: www.telegraph.co.uk

REPORT FRIDAY 26^TH AUGUST 2011

ALL was represented at the JCQ Briefing for Stakeholders where detailed information was issued.

 This was the first year of the new GCSE specifications and especially the new arrangements for the speaking exam reflecting the recommendations of the Dearing Review in 2006.  

The numbers entered for modern languages has shown a further decline, with French declining from 177860 entries in 2010 to 154,221 in 2011 – a drop of 13% (German 70,174 to 60,887, 13%; Spanish 67,778 to 66,021, 3%)  

The pattern is the same in England as in the UK as a whole.  French and German are now under half of the numbers entered in 2002  

An unexpected factor in the figures released by JCQ is the drop in A* grades in French, German and Spanish in both percentages and actual numbers.

 The year-on-year increase in the percentage of candidates gaining A*-C has steadied (French 71.6% to 72.1%, German 75.0% to 75.7%, Spanish 74.6 to 74.2%).  There had been a steady rise as a consequence of the dramatic drop in the number of lower-attaining pupils being entered, but the cohort profile would now appear to be similar in 2010 and 2011 (but we will not get the figures to confirm this until late in the Autumn Term)

 Colleagues may be interested in the subject matrices available on the Ofsted website in the Library which give the numbers of pupils attaining each GCSE grade from a given KS2 level, which is very helpful in taking account of the different cohort ability profile in individual schools

https://www.raiseonline.org/documentlibrary/ViewDocumentLibrary.aspx > Target-setting>Transition matrices for KS2 to 4

 These subject matrices also confirm the significant extent of severe grading in modern languages, reported in the QCA report in February 2008.